"What is sure is that there is no room for hopelessness and resignation."
"What is sure is that there is no room for hopelessness and resignation."
This month, representatives of countries around the world are meeting in Katowice, Poland to negotiate the rulebook for the Paris Agreement. During the 24th Conference of Parties to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change, the global community will try to come up with the implementing guidelines for the Paris Agreement, the international accord to try to limit global warming to well below 2 degrees.
Earlier this year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change released a special report summarizing the scientific consensus that even if we limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius, there will still be harmful effects. Limiting warming to only 1.5 degrees will be better, but even that will result in climate change that is worse than what we are currently experiencing. According to the special report, we have around 12 years to limit global warming to 1.5 or less. The thing is, even with the Paris Agreement, the world is set to exceed 2 degrees of warming.
Given all this, it is natural to ask: Are we doomed? Is there anything we can do? And if there is, what is it?
First, the short answers. Knowing if we are doomed depends on what we mean by “doom.” What is sure is that there is no room for hopelessness and resignation. If anything, the facts suggest that we must do everything in our power to change the system to achieve the best situation possible. Every bit of effective action will result in a better outcome than inaction. Effective action ranges from decreasing consumption to changing the system through collective action, with the latter be being far more effective than the former.
Before I expound on these short answers, it helps to review a few basics.
Global warming refers to the fact that the average temperature of the world is increasing over the long term. This average temperature is measured for the whole planet and over the course of a year. This averages out the effects of weather and regional variations.
Last year, the average global temperature was measured at 0.84 degrees Celsius higher than pre-industrial levels. It is part of a trend of increasing global temperature. The last three years are the also the three hottest years on record.
The current levels of global warming is already causing the dangerous effects of climate change that we have been seeing in the past few years. The Philippines, for example, has been named one of the most vulnerable countries to climate change after several record-breaking extreme weather events hit the country several years in a row, from Typhoon “Yolanda” and unusually heavy monsoon seasons to record droughts.
Other countries are also feeling the brunt of climate change. India has seen a spike in heat waves in recent years. Meanwhile, the US has been hit by superstorms and long wildfire seasons.
Enough carbon dioxide has already been released into the air to ensure that the warming will continue. This means things will only get worse.
In other words, we are, in a way, doomed to live in a planet with worse climate. However, we are far from doomed to live in worst possible scenario. This means that we have to double our efforts to reduce carbon emissions to limit warming to 1.5 degrees. If we fail to do that, then we must limit it to 2 degrees. If we fail even at that, then we must limit it to 2.5 or lower, and so on. Every fraction of a degree matters a lot.
Every fraction of a degree matters because every slight increase in average global temperature results in an increased probability of the most extreme weather condition. And it is the extreme events that cause the most damage. Imagine the difference between your average storm and the most extreme ones. The difference is big, especially in terms of damages.
According to the IPCC Special Report, the most effective way to limit global warming is through changing the system. One example would be to shift the system of energy production away from fossil fuels to renewables. One way we can do this is through collective, even political action. Another way would be to support a carbon tax.
Another important thing to note is that we must be prepared to miss the target and then find ways to compensate and hit it at a later time. For example, if the world fails to limit carbon emissions enough to limit warming to 1.5 degrees, we must be prepared to capture the carbon already in the air to bring the warming back to 1.5.
Every fraction of a degree of warming we can prevent is a victory. The more we can limit the warming, the greater our victory. Let us maximize our victory now.