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Philippines
Thursday, March 28, 2024

30 days

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"But don't take my word for it. You can predict only up to a certain point."

 

There are just 30 days of campaigning left before voters troop to the polls and express their choices for 12 senators, a congressman, a party to elect party-listed representatives, their governor or city mayor, their “vices” and their board members and councilors.

The ballot is quite long, made easier because voters will shade ovals corresponding to names and numbers, instead of having to write their choices via long hand.

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I have said it in this space and elsewhere: We have far too many elective positions.

In my ideal world, we should vote for a president, whose vote automatically counts for his vice presidential party-mate.  That is one.  `

We should vote for a city mayor or governor, also on block voting style as the presidential team.  That is vote number two.

Then, we vote for our congressman who will represent our district in the House of Representatives.  That is vote number three.

We should elect senators by region, not by nationwide choice. Thus, if we assign three senators per region, then we vote, either by automated means or even by long-hand writing, three names.  That makes for six.

There will be no provincial board members.  All elected mayors of a province will constitute the legislative body for the province.

Similarly, there will be no elected councilors.  The city or municipal council will be composed of all the barangay chairmen elected separately—mid-term of the aforementioned elective officials.  If there are so many barangays (Manila has 897, Cebu City has 87), those with too many barangays like Manila should be reduced and rationalized according to area and population; and the barangay chieftains of Cebu City can take turns of two or three years each as city council members.  The average number of barangays in municipalities is a low dozen or fourteen, enough to constitute the ordinance-making body for their town.

Simple, right?  In a separate article, I will explain my proposal further, although this would require a constitutional amendment and discombobulate the present setup where we have a surfeit of politicians, a battalion of dynasts lording over their fiefdoms all over the country, and far too expensive elections.

But let us focus on the coming May 13 elections for now.

There will be 12 senators elected or reelected come May 13.  My forecast: Newbie Bong Go, President Duterte’s favorite, will top the election, or at worst, be numero tres, after reelectionists Grace Poe and Cynthia Villar, not necessarily in that order.

Two other Duterte favorites, Bato de la Rosa and Francis Tolentino, will be carried to victory on the strength of the president’s high endorsement value.

One or two reelectionists may not make the grade in the closely contested last four slots. But Pia Cayetano is a shoo-in as a balik-senadora. Unless a debacle erupts, Lito Lapid, on the coat-tails of Coco Martin’s Ang Probinsyano, is likely to come back to the Senate too.

Sonny Angara and Nancy Binay are also assured of reelection.  As for the other candidates, it’s too risky to call at this point.  I don’t want to have egg all over my face.

In 2010, when I was Senator Serge Osmeña’s COO for our campaign operations dedicated to making Cory and Ninoy’s son, Benigno Simeon Aquino III win as president, Holy Week was right smack in the middle of the 90-day campaign period.

The week after Easter Sunday, we reviewed the latest in-house survey we had done, and it was my task to discuss the results with the candidate and his family. The candidate was not around in the briefing room of a studio where we would likewise view our latest television ad. But present were his three sisters, some other relatives.

The fearless forecast:  PNoy was certain of victory; no stopping the momentum.  But guess what shocked his sisters—Erap, instead of Manny Villar, had the momentum to make it as number two, though a bit far from PNoy.

The other shocker to my small audience was that Jojo Binay, Erap’s vice presidential teammate, was gaining so fast against our LP candidate, Mar Roxas, that it was too close to call.

That evening, I was sharing some bottles of San Miguel with Senator Chiz Escudero, who had decided to cast his lot for Binay instead of PNoy’s teammate Mar. He insisted that Binay had the “wind beneath his wings” and would defeat Roxas.

I bet otherwise, maintaining that there was too little time left for Jojo to catch up with Mar.  The ultimate result:  Jojo won by a whisker.  Chiz won the bet.

What am I trying to say?

We can predict only up to a certain point.  In closely contested elections, it’s God who makes the difference.    

And in the upcoming senatorial elections, with Numero Uno hasta Ochomore or less done for,  numbers nine to 12 could yet be anybody’s guess.  For those remaining four slots, Mar and Bam of the opposition would be slugging it out with Koko Pimentel, JV Ejercito, Francis Tolentino, Jinggoy Estrada, Imee Marcos, Bong Revilla, and Serge Osmena. Even Dong Mangudadatu could spring a surprise, if Muslims vote like Bicolanos for their favorite son.

But don’t take my word for it.  These are tea leaves read from the bottom of a cup drank on the first week of April, which is 30 days away from D-Day. 

The power of endorsement, especially for administration candidates, that is, the ones seriously being pushed for, could make a whale of a difference. Also, TV ads that really catch the attention of the voter, much like Manny Villar’s “lumalangoy sa dagat ng basura” in 2010, or Digong’s “tapang at malasakit” in 2015, played with the right frequency, could yet change the tide for any of the nine candidates vying for the four slots.”‹

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