President Rodrigo Duterte embarks on a historic if controversial visit to the People’s Republic of China in the next three days. He is expected to have official talks with the president, the premier and a leading Politburo member, while his cabinet secretaries will be meeting with their counterparts in Beijing.
Prior to the visit, some development assistance packages may have been ironed out, and these should be announced either in a joint communiqué, or some private and public deals the signing of which the President might witness himself.
The problem that we see is absorptive capacity. In short, we might be getting more than our bureaucracy could chew. That’s a rather happy problem, though.
But in the end, having been offered wherewithal without the corresponding adequate absorptive capacity may become a dampener for future assistance. Even the public may be disappointed in the end.
Recall what happened to President Arroyo’s “aperture a la China,” where loans were extended for big-ticket projects such as the North Rail, and even the equally aborted NBN-ZTE deal, which would have provided us with speedy internet.
Of course, under President Duterte’s firm and headstrong leadership, corruption in these deals may not be an issue. The President would simply not brook any corruption especially where foreign aid or linkages are concerned.
What many businessmen and even diplomats I have talked with are worried about is the bureaucracy’s absorptive capacity. Case in point: tourism.
Last year, only some 400,000 mainland Chinese visited the Philippines. This compares to more than a million who visited Vietnam. And more than 3 million who went to Thailand.
Since state-controlled travel agencies can direct the flow of tourists to “favored” destinations, it should not be too difficult to foresee the Chinese visitors to our islands jumping to a million in just one year. But are our tourism agencies and the infrastructure supporting the same ready for such a huge influx? I need not detail what these support infrastructure are. We simply know how inadequate we are in these because even as domestic tourists, we suffer from the inconveniences of such woeful and even over-priced infrastructure.
Here in Taiwan where I write this article, the tourism industry, especially in its resort cities and provinces, have suffered a severe slump simply because the politics between Beijing and Taipei have soured after a new government was elected and took over in May this year.
Yet no one can downplay the immediate benefits of a resurgence of visitor traffic from China to the Philippines. But are Palawan, Cebu, Bohol, Boracay and other major destinations ready?
Which is why rebuilding trust between us and our giant neighbor to our west is a major economic offensive on the part of the Duterte government. If the Chinese invest even in tourism infrastructure such as hotels and resorts, the gap which would likewise service their own tourists to the country could be solved. Provided, of course, the government’s bureaucracy, both national and local, move fast as well.
Another quick relief for our economy is the opening once more of China’s market to our bananas and pineapple exports. Mindanao felt the pinch of the icy-cold relations engendered by the previous government’s hostility towards China. Now Mindanao’s agricultural economy will have a giant shot in the arm.
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Initial reports on the effects of Typhoon “Karen” on Central plain’s palay harvests are quite disheartening. If indeed some 2 billion worth of palay crops have been devastated by the storm, that is quite worrisome for our food security in the coming months.
It is good that the new government had the prescience to authorize some 250,000 metric tons plus another of similar volume in imports. That should help stabilize supply deficiencies for the December to April period on account of Karen, and once more, hopefully not, Lawin’s possibly hitting another palay granary, Cagayan and Northern Isabela.
But as we suggested in Monday’s column, government, particularly the DBM, should move fast and give quick relief to our Nueva Ecija and Tarlac farmers whose palay harvests have been storm-damaged. DBM should immediately give the NFA both go-signal and wherewithal to buy storm-damaged palay at cost, just for our farmers to recover.
Planting rice is never fun, so the ditty goes. Harvesting rice is quite iffy as well.