By Friday afternoon, the whole world was agog about the imminence of the exit of the United Kingdom from the European Economic Union. A week before that, all seemed calm and reassuring. In a morbid sort of way, some European experts even saw the murder of a woman British Member of Parliament as a sign Britons would ponder well before making that crucial decision to leave.
But leave the Brits did, in a stunning 52-48 majority on Thursday (Friday here). Prime Minister David Cameron had no other alternative than to announce his resignation at 10 Downing. Stocks fell—in Asia, France, Germany, the United States, all over the world. The pound lost, and so did the euro. And the monies quickly went into the “safe” havens: the US dollar, US treasuries, and of course, that old reliable—gold.
The Philippine Stock Exchange had been suffering for days after the president-elect offered the Department of Environment and Natural Resources post to staunch (and blinders-equipped) anti-mining activist Gina Lopez. And then Brexit came to cap the week. Stock brokers must have been specially active, downing bottles of single malt whiskey on Friday’s usually traffic-struck night. Or Yamazaki, because Scots voted to remain.
Note the composition of the “Leave” vote. It was the revolt of the ordinary Brit, the rural folks, the factory workers, the less fortunate who found their placid lives threatened by immigration-cum-terrorism, as against the upwardly mobile ones who profited immensely from the UK’s being part of the huge common market that was the EU. Note how the countryside “revolted” while the urban centers of London and Glasgow wanted the status quo.
The same eerie occurrence is somehow happening in the US of A, with the political rise of a Donald Trump amid conservative Republicans. The party of the Right is getting ultra-rightist, after years of an America buffeted by the insecurities of terrorism, economic downturn, and immigration-related labor competition. And the “irascible” Donald Trump has become the poster boy of these pent-up negativities.
“Brexit” may in fact be symptomatic of something brewing in the insides of the White Anglo-Saxon Protestant mind of their English cousins. And should Donald trump Hillary come November, imagine the consternation it will cause, inside the US of A and beyond. The Brits, the Europeans and Americans will be shouting, “Stop the World, I Wanna Get Off”—a take from a 1966 Hollywood movie or a Matthew West song.
Back home in the Philippine islands, of course, we will be ushering in a new president three days from now. He has got his hands full with fighting drug lords and criminals, and has made no bones of his intent to exterminate and send these scum to kingdom come.
That may be the easiest of the incoming president’s problems. The way it is going, lesser mortals in the drug-laced criminal syndicates are either surrendering in droves, or getting prematurely executed by a police force trying to show-off to the incoming commander-in-chief. After June 30, when Duterte makes good his promise to “kill” some big-time drug lords and their protectors in the police, the justice system and the local governments, he might be able to indeed deliver on his three-to-six-month timeline.
But while all may quiet down on the crime front, the seas to our west and to China’s east may be roiling in the suspense of possible confrontation.
In fact, a week or so after Duterte sits in Malacañang, the UN Arbitral Tribunal in Den Haag might come out with its decision on the Aquino administration’s case filed against China over territorial sovereignty in what PNoy calls the West Philippine Sea and Beijing (and the whole world) calls the South China Sea.
This would put the Duterte administration on a crossroads in its foreign relations.
Everyone and his mother know that China will not— in fact, has not—given the UN tribunal recognition whatsoever. Its expected ruling notwithstanding, China will not buckle down from its “historic” nine-dash line claims.
Duterte has said, and prudently so, that he would not plunge the nation into a war which we can never hope to win, and over which our “traditional” ally, the mighty US of A, will not come rushing to our defense.
How he gingerly untangles the mess created by a six-year freeze between us and our giant neighbor and strategic trading partner will be a test of Duterte’s statesmanship and, above all, nationalism. How he maneuvers the country between the shoals of “territorial sovereignty,” American pressure, and the people’s economic interests will be the supreme test of his sagacity as leader in these troubled times.
Brexit may be distant enough, though with possible medium-term downside effects to us. Donald Trump may be a nightmare to most, hopefully outside the realm of political possibility. But the China Sea issue is not only physically proximate, its landmark ruling is frighteningly soon.
For all these, it is a relief to think that we have elected a strong leader in Rodrigo Duterte. We pray that he exercises political will with utmost wisdom as the country (and the world) goes through these trying times.