President Rodrigo Duterte will deliver his third State of the Nation Address on July 23 and not a few are filled with foreboding about what he will say on this occasion. Traditionally, the Sona is when the president reports to the people about his/her accomplishments for the past year, and his plans for the succeeding years to advance the country’s interests and people’s welfare.
However, going by his first two Sonas, as well his style of communicating with people, Duterte does not have the discipline to stick to his prepared statements. He has his own “talking points” and speaks extemporaneously about whatever he fancies. The speech is peppered with curses. Most of his statements have been very controversial. Since presidential pronouncements are taken as policy pronouncements, many times, Duterte’s words have resulted in extreme “policies” and orders that violate human rights. Worse, these have resulted in tens of thousands of killings. His tirades against other countries, as well as his “bromance” with China, have put the country’s interests in a perilous state.
For the coming Sona, the Palace has already said that Duterte will not be reporting about his administration’s accomplishments. Spokesman Harry Roque said that Duterte would like to speak to the people “from the heart.” How this should be interpreted is, well, a guessing game. The country is facing major political and economic challenges and what the people need are concrete measures that will address these.
The country faces this administration’s shift to federalism project, China’s continuing militarization and occupation of areas in the West Philippine Sea, the continuing daily killings of innocent people including local government officials, corruption allegations against some of the President’s people, and the deterioration of the economy with the rising inflation and record-level weakening of the peso.
This Sona should be an opportune time for the President to assure the people that his administration is working hard to preserve our democratic gains, protect our sovereign rights over WPS, respect people’s human rights, address graft and corruption, and pursue genuine economic reforms. These are reasonable expectations but may not be forthcoming.
Duterte will talk to the people “from the heart” says Roque. The country is at crossroads. Duterte is the prime mover of the federalism initiative. Already, his consultative committee has submitted to him and the Congress leadership the draft Constitution for a federated Philippines. This document is creating a lot of stir among political observers. Beyond dividing the country, there are very dangerous provisions that allow for the concentration of power in the hands of the president particularly during the transition period, making it easy to declare Martial Law, and the dilution of human rights guaranteed under the present Constitution, among others.
Midterm elections are scheduled for next year. Talks are rife about a “no-el” scenario. In fact, the Speaker of the House of Representatives and the Senate President have recently expressed their openness to, if not outright agreement with scrapping the said elections. The House Speaker has said that cancelling the elections will enable the country to prepare for the shift to federalism (and for them to hold on to power). This will be violative of the present Constitution but this does not seem to worry Congress leaders.
It took several days and a lot of criticism from social media users before the copy of the draft Constitution was released to the public. At first, there were Con-Com members who said that the President should approve it first before the release. This is hard to understand because the people should understand this very important document as its impact on the nation’s life is very significant.
The effects of this possible shift will be felt many years after Duterte and his cohorts are no longer in power. Why the reluctance, then? Is it because Con-Com members know that they have put in very dangerous provisions in the draft constitution?
There are talks that buses filled with people from some provinces are being hauled off to Manila, with promises of money and food (and in some cases, some capital for small business for those who are able to recruit many others to join) to attend orientations on federalism and sign papers on this. The accounts are sketchy but if this is indeed happening, it would appear that the move for federalism is in full blast.
Duterte himself has made the rounds of provinces after the last barangay elections for the swearing in of the newly elected village officials. Again, observers opined that this is in preparation for the big shift.
So what will Duterte say in his Sona? What will “talking from the heart” entail? I am inclined to believe (and I hope I am wrong) that the President will use this platform to bring the case for the shift from unitary to federal form of government to the people. He will use his political capital, his popularity to convince the people to support the shift. If they are able to get a significant number of signatures from people, Duterte may brandish these signatures to make it appear that Filipinos support the initiative.
He possibly can endorse the draft constitution to Congress and instruct them to convene as constituent assembly. This means that as Con-Ass, Congress will tinker with the draft constitution, make their desired changes (which undoubtedly will favor their interests) before submitting it to the people in a plebiscite for ratification.
So, the elections might be replaced by a plebiscite. Assuming that Con-Ass is convened and it finishes its work within the year, and plebiscite is scheduled by May next year, there will only be a few months for people to study and understand the Constitution that they will be asked to ratify. Certainly, this is not enough time to prepare the country and the people for a major change in the nation’s life.
Thus, Duterte’s upcoming Sona is most important because of the possibilities. It is the responsibility of every Filipino to stay tuned and be alert to how the president will talk “from the heart.” Again, I hope that I am wrong that this Sona may be the most life-changing for the country and the people.
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