"The next four months will be exciting."
"The next four months will be exciting."
If the results of the survey conducted by The Center proves accurate, then except maybe for one independent candidate, the 2019 senatorial race might be an all-administration show.
In a non-commissioned survey conducted from Jan. 4 to 8, 2019 among 1,200 respondents, The Center placed Senator Grace Poe-Llamanzares leading the pack with a 63-percent preference among the voters, dislodging erstwhile leader Senator Cynthia Villar who got 62 percent.
Former senator and now Taguig Rep. Pia Cayetano remains strong in third position with 55 percent and Senator Nancy Binay remains at fourth with 49 percent, to complete an all-woman cast for the Top Four.
Senator Koko Pimentel hangs on to fifth with 44 percent while former Senators Lito Lapid and Jinggoy Estrada are tied for the sixth spot with 42 percent and 41 percent, respectively.
Aside from the seven, senatorial aspirants who emerged as the most likely to make it to the winner’s circle if the elections were to be held today are: Senator Sonny Angara at eighth position with 39 percent, former Presidential Adviser Francis Tolentino who remains strong in ninth position with 33 percent, Retired Gen. Bato dela Rosa at 10th place with 29 percent, Former Senator Serge Osmeña in 11th place with 27 percent, and Former Special Assistant to the President Bong Go rounding up the Top 12 with 24 percent.
While Osmeña could be the second independent candidate to spoil the almost all-admin show, his chances of securing a seat in the Senate is not at all secured as he is in a statistical tie with those in the 13th to 16thplace.
With the survey having a margin of error of +3.5 percent, it could still be probable for Ilocos Norte Gov. Imee Marcos, who has 22 percent, Senator JV Ejercito and former Senator Mar Roxas, both with 21 percent, and former Senator Bong Revilla with 20 percent to dislodge Osmeña and Go.
However, Go’s precarious standing at 12th place could be negated by President Rodrigo Duterte’s endorsement value. According to The Center’s survey, 24 percent of the respondents said they would vote for whomever the President endorses.
Surprisingly, former president, now Speaker Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, whom other polling firms had placed as the least trusted public official, is still held in high esteem by the voters with an 17-percent endorsement value, higher than former President Fidel V. Ramos’ 11-percent endorsement value and former president, now Manila Mayor Erap Estrada’s 6 percent.
Former President Noynoy Aquino has the least endorsement value at 3 percent.
Some 39 percent said they don’t know or are undecided on whether their choices can be influenced by these officials.
This, according to Ed Malay, The Center director, might spell boon or bane for some of the candidates especially those in the rank of ninth to 16th place.
“It shows that most of the voters tend to be influenced by their local officials and or political leaders in their respective barangays. But it also shows that the three candidates endorsed by the President will be going into the 2019 polls with an advantage of 24 percent,” Malay said.
Based on the survey results, Malay said it may be all over but the shouting for the 2019 senatorial polls as it will be very difficult to dislodge those who are now in the Magic 12.
To a large degree, most voters are influenced primarily by (1) name recall and or the popularity of the candidates, (2) political machinery especially in the distribution of sample ballots, and (3) logistics which is required for the media campaign including a heavy bias in the use of social media.
Malay said the Philippine political landscape has changed a lot as there is more emphasis today in the use of social media and digital campaigns. While the Philippines still lags behind its modern Southeast Asian neighbors, much of the country including the countryside are now wired or equipped with digital connectivity that makes it easier now for political candidates to disseminate their campaign materials through the online platform.
He added that the 2019 polls will serve as a testing ground for the 2022 presidential elections as there will definitely be a revamp of this campaign model given the introduction of new technologies with the advent of more young voters whose mindsets are different from the character of Filipino voters some 30 years ago.
With the election period officially commencing yesterday, the next four months would surely be exciting.