The sky was supposed to have fallen by the end of 1992. Except that it didn’t.
In December 1992, the 1947 Military Bases Agreement between the United States and the Philippines lapsed. A year earlier, the Philippine Senate voted 12-11 to reject a new bases treaty, despite the lobbying of the pro-American President Corazon Aquino.
Aquino, who was installed in a bloodless coup backed by Washington in 1986, had warned of dire economic consequences if the Senate failed to renew the proposed RP-US Treaty of Friendship, Cooperation and Peace. The treaty would have allowed the Americans to stay 10 more years at Subic Naval Base, the largest US military naval base in Asia at the time.
The New York Times reported that a decision not to extend the American lease on Subic and other bases “will be a major economic loss for the impoverished Philippines, which will lose the aid it receives annually for use of the [Subic] base and the hundreds of millions of dollars in business generated by its presence.” Under pressure from Washington, Aquino led rallies at the Senate and even called for a referendum on the issue instead of ratification by the chamber, as the Constitution that she had had drawn up stipulated; she failed.
Pro-American Filipinos, then as now making up a majority of the population, agreed that the bases should stay, according to surveys taken at the time. But the Senate was adamant, and in a historic vote won by the “Magnificent 12,” it rejected the renewal of the bases lease.
And despite all the warnings about bad times that would befall us if we turned our backs on the Americans, the sky did not fall. A quarter century after the US military was kicked out by the Senate, we have not “turned Communist,” as officials of the first Aquino administration warned, nor has our economy tanked.
I’m reminded of the bases controversy because I see the exact same arguments being dusted off and deployed once again these days, from the same pro-American crowd that once fought tooth and nail to keep the US bases. That the people warning that the economy will take a major hit, that we will lose out on billions in aid and that we will turn Commie (in a world where no nation is really Communist anymore) are also identified with the Aquino family is probably not a coincidence.
I am convinced that President Rodrigo Duterte is merely continuing a policy that was sidelined during the six years of the Second Aquino administration. It was Noynoy Aquino, like his mother before him, who tried to undo the process of weaning this country away from more than a century of dependence on the US which began when Admiral George Dewey sailed into Manila Bay in 1898.
It was Ferdinand Marcos who first tried to play the US off against its Cold War rivals, by renewing ties with a then-weak China and Russia. And all succeeding presidents after Marcos, except for the two Aquinos, continued the policy of opening up to other regional and world powers; Duterte is just speeding up the process because he understands how his immediate predecessor caused a lot of damage with his own version of the reverse pro-American pivot.
Cory’s American ties are perfectly understandable, since she was installed by them after the US decided to oust Marcos. I’d like to think that Cory’s son was motivated by filial piety in embracing the Americans like his mother once did—except that I suspect that Noynoy only wanted to take the straight path of least resistance and did not want to worry about problematic geopolitical relationships and the balancing thereof, for the Philippines’ benefit.
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But since we’re being bombarded with the same dire predictions, mutatis mutandis, if we turn away economically and militarily from the US, let’s try to refute them, also using updated realities. Let’s begin with the supposed economic fallout of turning away from the US.
The sad truth is, American investors haven’t exactly been breaking down the door to get in on the local action for decades. Except for the business process outsourcing industry, there haven’t been any major investments locally.
And the BPO companies will not relocate because of Duterte, despite all the scare talk, because costs are low and talent and profit are good here. Remember that US President Barack Obama himself was ignored by these companies when he asked them to ship back to the US the jobs they sent here—that’s just the way business works.
As for aid, what aid? If you don’t know how small the Philippines, a former colony and supposed “valued ally” is getting in aid from America compared to other countries like Pakistan, Israel, Vietnam and a host of others, you won’t find it here; as they say, Google is your friend.
As for turning Communist, a favorite line peddled by Duterte critic Senator Antonio Trillanes, that’s just so ignorant. China and Russia may be authoritarian states, but they’re even less Communist than we are these days.
And if Trillanes is so scared of us catching the Communist disease by dealing with China, I wonder how he inoculated himself when he visited that country 16 times as the “backdoor negotiator” of Noynoy Aquino. But that’s really another story, for another time.
All of which just proves that the sky was never in danger of falling when we strive to go our own way as a nation. It only seems to be that way if you’re a pro-American, pro-Aquino neo-colonial.