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Friday, March 29, 2024

Duterte’s change is good and bad

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For two weeks now, I have been giving presentations of my assessment of the Duterte presidency one year after his inauguration. My audiences have been mostly overseas Filipino workers, most of whom are pro-Duterte, as well as more divided groups of academic, diplomatic, media, and similar audiences like the one attending the Ateneo de Manila University School of Government briefing last Thursday in the university’s Rockwell campus.

In these presentations, I strive to keep an independent, objective, unbiased, and constructive tone. The title of my talk captures this well: “The age of Duterte: change has come. It’s good and bad.”

Following the title, I frame my presentations around a no-frills outline—The Good the Duterte government has done or is doing, The Bad happening, and The Uncertain (like constitutional change and presidential health). I also propose options for citizens – what we can do to correct the bad, support the good and consolidate the gains, and manage the uncertain?

I liked that I have both pro- and anti- Duterte people in my audiences. They keep me honest and make me strive to find respectful language that enables dialogue. I start these presentations asking my audience to set aside their political biases, warning them that partisan lens will not allow them to learn from what they will hear.

The two most important decisions Duterte has made that will have the biggest positive impact on most, if not all Filipinos—the appointment of a central bank governor and the end of the corrupt rice importation system— have been done right. In these decisions, Duterte resisted political pressure and chose the best option. 

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The tax reform program being proposed to fund the massive infrastructure program that is being designed promises to enable inclusive development while physically modernizing our country. We are so far behind now from our neighbors. I do share a couple of caveats on the fairness of the tax reform package if not properly designed and the corruption that could happen with Build Build Build with Public Private Partnerships approach now set aside in favor of government procurement. Getting immersed in Chinese debt could also be problematic.

I make sure to praise the departments and agencies led by personalities from the left—DSWD, DAR, NAPC, and PCUP—and the work of Cabinet Secretary Jun Evasco. While there are complaints here and there, mostly personality based and some going back to the ideological battles in the 1980s and 1990, these departments are doing well. At last, we have agencies constantly siding with their constituents and no longer trying to always compromise and look for a false balance. The left can be trusted to govern and they will not make a mess of things.

Despite the challenges, I am glad that the peace processes with the Moros and the communists are continuing. Among others, this is because of the exemplary leadership of Secretary Jess Dureza and the chairs he has chosen on the government side—Irene Santiago for the implementation of the MILF agreement, Nabil Tan for the negotiations with Nur Misuari, and Secretary Bebot Bello who leads the talks with the communists. They are backed up by excellent panels and resource persons. Last but not the least, our partners in the negotiating table are also sincere and committed to peace.

I am still upbeat that we can complete both peace processes—with the Bangsamoro Basic Law soon to be brought back to Congress and the NDFP talks to resume in a few months. My wish for the latter negotiations is that they accelerate the process so we can get to a bilateral ceasefire agreement soon. Without such bilateral ceasefire, the peace process will always be hostage to the situation on the ground over which the negotiators have no control of.

After highlighting the good done in Duterte’s first year, I then point out the bad that must be corrected and reversed.

The war against drugs that victimizes only the poor and allows the drug syndicates and big pushers to continue their trade must be stopped and a new, more effective strategy should be adopted. Aside from the sheer injustice and immorality of it and the impunity, it has compromised the PNP and many of its officers and will likely lead to the indictment of President Duterte and his top law and order officials in the International Criminal Court.

The abuse of power of Congress, especially in the House of Representatives—from its treatment of Senator Leila de Lima, railroading of the impeachment dismissal, refusal to do its duty on reviewing martial law, and now its threats to the Court of Appeals—must end.

The state of our democracy is bad, the prime example of which is the vitriol being thrown at Senators De Lima and Risa Hontiveros as well as Vice President Leni Robredo. This is, by the way, not the fault of one group of partisans. In my talk, I always emphasize that the downward slide of politics began in the PNoy years and especially in the run-up to the 2016 elections with the malicious ways GMA, Corona, Binay, and Poe were attacked. In my opinion, Duterte was spared that because at first it was believed his entry into the elections would diminish support for Binay and Poe.

The China policy and its terrible consequences for the country’s territorial integrity, coupled with a confused implementation of an independent foreign policy where we alienate old allies, have also been bad for the country. Hopefully, newly appointed Foreign Affairs Secretary Alan Cayetano will be able to correct this.

Finally, the Marawi siege and the declaration of martial law in Marawi have long-term consequences that will haunt the country. I have written extensively about these in other columns.

My final set of points I describe under the category of uncertain. First on my list is constitutional change as the time frame is narrowing even as it is still possible. But the mother of all uncertainty is of course the health of the President.

I hope Malacañang could be more transparent about what is really ailing the President so speculation ends. I also cannot understand why our investigative journalists are not able to report on this with some certainty.

In any case, I definitely wish the President well and would encourage him to rest and pace himself better. I certainly praise him for his hard work in traveling so much to reach out to other leaders and OFWs and for his empathy in going to all wakes of fallen soldiers but some prudence might be needed if he is to survive and do well in his term. While Leni Robredo is a good, solid, competent, steel-willed, and visionary leader and will rise up to the occasion if needed, the country would be very divided, even more than it is now if she succeeds in an untimely way. Indeed, it will be a very brutal succession. No one should wish that on Robredo and on the country.

I end my talks, stressing that it was important to go beyond Duterte as this age will pass. It always does and the country must move on, learn the lessons, repeat the good but not, never again, the bad.

Facebook: https://web.facebook.com/deantonylavs/ Twitter: tonylavs

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