After repeated pronouncements over the past several months from the President himself, he has finally done it—declare martial law in the whole of Mindanao from, of all places, Moscow. This was perhaps triggered by the ongoing clashes in Marawi City where a group of armed men from the Maute group entered the City apparently to provide assistance to a beleaguered group of Abu Sayyaf under their leader Isnilon Hapilon.
As of this writing, the picture is still not clear as to the circumstances of the clashes. Maybe in the coming days, the public will learn more. The apparent ease of the Maute group to penetrate an urban center of 200,000 people raises some concerns, more so because in the past several weeks, the government has scored accomplishments in the fight against the Maute group and Abu Sayyaf. With this penetration of the city, it would appear that the strength of the Maute group has not diminished. If this is the case, the problem in Mindanao could be a lot more serious than the public has been made to believe.
Just a few days ago, an Army battalion was deployed in Davao City to augment security provided by the police. It is not known whether this has any connection with the fighting that is going on in Marawi City or just a coincidence. But if the situation is indeed deteriorating, then the government should inform the public accordingly. Although this martial law will last for 60 days, the question that everyone probably wants to ask is, was the declaration necessary, given the vast powers of the presidency? Could it not have been possible for the President to tackle the problem with his current powers without resorting to Martial Law? Under Martial Law, the writ of habeas corpus is suspended and warrantless arrests can be made. To many who are old enough to remember the martial law years of President Ferdinand Marcos, this will surely bring back dreadful memories of those years.
Let us remember, though, that Mindanao is not the entire country. Mindanao even in the best of years has always been a problem. In spite of the fact the majority of our AFP personnel are deployed there, government has not been able to exercise full control over the island. This is one reason why so many armed groups are able to operate there with impunity. Today, instead of the three traditional armed groups like the Moro Islamic Liberation Front, Moro National Liberation Front and Abu Sayyaf, two have been added with the entry of the Maute group and the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Fighters.
These are only the Muslim groups. If the Communist Party of the Philippines/New People’s Army is included together with private armies, the problem becomes a lot bigger.
Many presidents before President Du30 have attempted and tried in many ways to solve the problem but the Mindanao problem persist to this day. President Marcos, for instance, looked at the problem as something political that could not be solved by armed conflict. This is the reason why we have the Tripoli Agreement. He also co-opted the traditional politicians but the fighting continued.
President Cory Aquino also signed many agreements with Nur Misuari. President Fidel Ramos believed in negotiations but added economic development into the mix. He believed that a peace deal coupled with sustained economic development to provide jobs and opportunities would divert people’s attention from fighting.
President Estrada embarked on an all-out war and had the MILF running. The Armed Forces was able to retake all territories controlled by the MILF. Unfortunately for him, his tenure was cut short by almost four years. We therefore cannot judge whether his approach to the problem could have been successful.
Meanwhile, not much effort took place with the administration of Presidents Gloria Arroyo and Noynoy Aquino. In fact, during the term of President Arroyo, the Maguindanao massacre took place with the murder of more than 50 people, mostly journalists. It was allegedly masterminded by the political kingpin and warlord Andal Ampatuan Sr. The trial of those involved is still ongoing.
With Noynoy Aquino, we saw many raids by the MNLF and Abu Sayyaf like the one in Zamboanga City and the now-infamous Mamasapano encounter where President Aquino took an active role.
One of the reasons for the election of President Duterte was the belief that he, being from Mindanao, understands the problem there better than anyone and therefore stands a better chance of solving it.
With this Martial Law declaration in Mindanao together with the state of lawlessness already existing throughout the country, he has now taken the most extreme measure. Since it will last only 60 days, this step must be a short-term solution to an age-old problem. Whether he will be successful is of course another matter. We would hope that there will be a plan of action that will cover the 60 days. Otherwise, the whole exercise would fail.
I have always believed that the long-term solution to the Mindanao problem is the strengthening of all government institutions supported by a professional, competent and well-equipped Police and Armed Forces so that government can function as it should. But to those who have lived there all their lives, order is better established through the barrel of a gun.
It is a complex problem. I hope that the declaration of Martial Law in Mindanao will not have a long-term negative effect on our economy or make the problem worse. And that its short-term negative effect on tourism and branding of the country would disappear rapidly.