Every release of Philippine GDP (gross domestic product) data in these times produces two surprises. The first has to do with the performance of the economy in comparison with the preceding year or the preceding quarter. The second surprise relates to the performance of Philippine agriculture.
The recent release of GDP data for the third quarter of 2017 ran true to form; it produced the same two surprises. The surprise about the GDP was positive: the economy grew at a rate slightly faster than the widespread expectation, i.e., 6.9 percent rather than 6.8 percent. The surprise about the agricultural sectors was, not surprisingly, less cheerful. Philippine agriculture grew at the lowest sectoral rate (less than one percent).
Dismal performance data from the agricultural sector are numbers to which the Filipino people have become accustomed. Filipinos are no longer shocked when they see very low or negligible performance numbers for Philippine agriculture. This is not how things should be. There are two principal reasons why not. The first reason is that the sector that produces this country’s food and fiber is walking on a treadmill; it is running in order to be able to stand still. The last figure for the nation’s population released by the National Statistics Authority placed it at 104 million, but my own best estimate based on a claimed annual population growth rate of 1.9 percent, is that this country now has 110 million people living in it. Clearly, Philippine agriculture cannot afford to be growing at very low or minimal rates when at least 1 million souls are added to the national population every year. And the 1.9 percent official growth rate does not look likely to come down significantly anytime soon.
The other reason why the situation represented by perennially dismal agricultural growth rates need not be the norm is that the government – the Department of Agriculture, the Department of Public Works and Highways and the science agencies – can craft a master plan for Philippine agriculture that will correct whatever policy misdirections exist, remove all biases and prejudices that exist toward the agricultural sector, deploy all the latest advances in agricultural science and provide the sector with all the physical infrastructure it needs in order to be able to operate efficiently.
What is needed is nothing short of a Big Push. The tons of verbiage about the importance of agricultural development no longer suffices. Neither does the feeble annual exercise known as the Congressional agricultural-budget hearings.
The progressive decrease in the importance accorded to Philippine agriculture can be traced to the birth of the OFW (overseas Filipino worker) phenomenon in the early 1970s. With the steady onrush of OFW remittances, the government felt a lessening of pressure to concentrate on the basic internal concerns, such as agricultural efficiency. The OFW phenomenon was followed in due course by the surge in the worldwide demand for semiconductors and related electronic products, which caused the export of such products to reach 50 percent of Philippine export trade, and, more recently, there has been the birth of another phenomenon, the BPO (business process outsourcing) industry.
Important though these changes have been for the Philippine economy, they caused the government to take its eyes off the agriculture ball.
The government of this country has a choice where Philippine agriculture is concerned. It can continue to muddle along, hoping that growth rates, like last quarter’s less than one percent will suffice for purposes of economic stability and national security. Or it can take the bull by its horns and go for a Master Plan for Philippine agriculture.
For a sensible government the choice is obvious.
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