After six years of hypocrisy and deceit, this shameless stooge has brought us right into the doorstep of possible armed conflict with China all because it has chosen to pursue the US-designed policy of inciting hostility with our neighbor. The confrontational approach chosen by outgoing President Noynoy Aquino has pushed us to a situation where we practically stand just one step closer to a “state of war” with China.
Such is most lamentable because our current relation with China is not of our own making. Rather, our dispute with China over the Spratly islands appears to have been intentionally locked to justify US presence in the country and extend to it the pre-eminent right to conduct regular naval patrol in the South China Sea. The decision to bring our claim to the Permanent Court of Arbitration in The Hague has made our position irrevocable, that even the succeeding administration would have difficulty modifying it without being accused of being a traitor.
The decision by the PNoy administration to bring our case to the PCA effectively deprived us of the leverage to resolve our dispute through direct and peaceful negotiations. There was initial optimism when the PCA declared its jurisdiction to hear the case. Paradoxically, though, it meant that we could no longer pull out our case in favor of direct negotiations.
It was a lose-lose proposition. Even if the PCA decides the case in our favor, we have known beforehand that China would not submit to its jurisdiction or accept its decision. Neither do we have the capacity to enforce a favorable decision. Some say that the policy we adopted is malignant such that a decision, favorable or otherwise, is bound to deteriorate. We did not consider that for as long as the channel for communication remains open, there is still the possibility to narrow the gap that separates the parties the same way that China and Vietnam were able to thresh out some of their differences in the Gulf of Tonkin.
Bringing our case to the PCA implies that we would respect whatever decision that the arbitration court will render. We can no longer turn our back much that it was this government that took the initiative to bring the case for arbitration. On the part of the Chinese, they may not demand that we withdraw our case, but certainly they would not accede to negotiate while a case remains pending against them before the international arbitration tribunal.
By locking up our position with the devil, we perpetually remain under the so-called protective umbrella of the US. The case we filed is like a ticking time bomb working against us. Whatever the decision is, it would always be disadvantageous to us. If the outcome would not be in our favor, technically we would be forced to give up the islands we presently occupy without China even using its might to eject us. If we win, either we go to war to enforce the decision or suffer national humiliation because there is no way we can enforce the decision.
The US is unlikely to engage China to enforce the decision for us without taking into account the possibility of nuclear confrontation. One thing sure, any decision of the PCA could only justify the permanent presence of US forces in our territory, possibly demanding a higher price using the pretext that we need them more than they need us.
As we anxiously await the decision, China has carried out reclamation in the area, has built military structures—an airfield, for instance, and has installed communications and other facilities designed to remind us that they are there to stay. We are now stranded in isolation that we cannot even make any improvements in the Spratlys to back up our loud mouth. The proponents of this chauvinistic but misguided policy could not even request the US to show its determination that whatever happens, it would stand by our side.
We completely deprived ourselves of the opportunity once offered to us by China, like a joint cooperation to explore, harness and develop the area. Rather, we opted to initiate our version of the Cold War, which effectively denied us to share in the economic prosperity that China could offer through economic development assistance. In fact, some members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations have already taken the approach of building stronger ties with China, consistent with the view that neighbors should cultivate friendship rather than heighten instability and insecurity. This could only open the door for the US to divide the countries of Southeast Asia.
A decision of the PCA in our favor is not even something for us to rejoice because the country would by then be teetering on the edge of possible armed conflict with China. Even PNoy’s successors would have difficulty in changing our foreign policy direction. There would be hysteria of blind jingoism and misguided patriotism, ignoring the horrendous consequence that could be brought about in our attempt to enforce that decision. We needlessly pushed ourselves to the precipice of going to war which we could not even hope to win.
In fact, our filing of a case invariably justified the continued US military presence in our territory and in the China Sea. Notably, this administration’s signing of the Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement allowing the conversion of the country to become a big US military base was timed when the Filipinos were already agitated by propaganda that China is an aggressor. China’s response was equally calibrated as if to remind us that it could also heighten its belligerence towards this country.
Knowing that our approach to resolve our dispute with China could ripen to armed conflict, President Noynoy Aquino, Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert del Rosario, Defense Secretary Voltaire Gazmin and all those who advocated the idea of engaging China in a possible bloody war over those islands could be held liable for violating Article 118 of the Revised Penal Code for inciting the country to war or in giving motive for reprisals. The offense they committed is serious. It means that the lives of the Filipinos would be sacrificed to enforce a decision that if examined closely is a US proxy war which the Philippines would serve as cannon fodder in securing its interest in this part of the globe.
PNoy, et al. committed an unlawful and unauthorized act because they purposely did not secure the consent of Congress. Congress alone has the authority to declare the existence of a state of war (Section 23[1], Article VI, Constitution). The deceit planned by the Aquino administration is for Congress to automatically approve its initiated war against China, not as a defensive declaration consistent to our policy of renouncing war as an instrument of national policy (Section 2, Article II, Constitution).
Many Filipinos failed to see this looming possibility because this shameless and stupid stooge exploited the weakness of patriotism that allegedly China is bullying us. We have not even officially or equivocally claimed it as part of our national territory to say that aggression was committed by China, vis-à-vis compelling us to fight a just and defensive war. These people could be held criminally liable because they adopted a war-mongering policy not in defense of our territorial integrity but part of the US’ pivot-to-Asia policy to contain China where our people will pay the terrible price of having to go to war without comprehending why, and with the hope of winning.
rpkapunan@gmail.com