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Thursday, March 28, 2024

Saudi Arabia’s New Heir Can’t Go Soft on Terror

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THE new heir to the throne in Saudi Arabia has great ambitions to modernize its economy. The West can and should help—so long as he keeps his kingdom committed to the fight against terrorism.

The timing of the promotion of Prince Mohammed bin Salman from his role as deputy crown prince was perhaps a surprise, but the fact of it was not. Prince Mohammed, favorite son of King Salman, was already dictating the country’s foreign and military policies, in addition to its oil strategy.

The man in charge of the Saudi counterterrorism effort, Prince Muhammad bin Nayef, was stripped of power in Wednesday’s shakeup. The Saudis’ contributions to the fight in the region were inconsistent, to be sure. Yet Nayef was sufficiently competent to merit both an assassination attempt by al-Qaeda and a medal from the CIA.

The new crown prince, with his focus on the economy, has paid little attention to the threat Sunni extremism poses to the kingdom. He is also unlikely to cut off government support for domestic Wahhabi clerics who preach violence, as he may need their support to calm any public opposition to his reform plans, which will require cutting subsidies and payouts Saudis have long enjoyed.

Prince Mohammed was also the driving force behind the flailing efforts to wipe out Iranian-backed Houthi rebels in Yemen and to lead several other Gulf states, including the United Arab Emirates and Bahrain, to cut off diplomatic and trade relations with Qatar, needlessly destabilizing the Gulf Cooperation Council at a time of war and of increasing Iranian influence across the Middle East. 

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Prince Mohammed and President Donald Trump seem to have hit it off, first when the prince got a one-on-one in the White House in March and then when Trump visited the kingdom last month. Trump needs to make something clear to the young prince: If his economic changes and plan for a Saudi Aramco IPO are to have any chance of success, he will need lots of foreign investment and cooperation.

Any lessening of his nation’s efforts against Islamic State and al-Qaeda, or to crack down on “charity” money going to fund terrorists and hate-preachers abroad, will make Saudi Arabia a vastly less appealing business partner for the West. Ditto failure to resolve the Qatar imbroglio and find an exit from the Yemen war.

Vision 2030, the 31-year-old prince’s ambitious plan to diversify the monarchy’s economy, is both popular and necessary. Non-oil revenue has risen by nearly half in the last two years, but still comprises just 12 percent of gross domestic product. Budget deficits have been rising, shocking for a nation with that ran a surplus of nearly 30 percent of GDP a decade ago. To be successful, the prince’s reforms will probably require both higher oil prices and lower public spending – and a receptive market for what is expected to be the largest IPO ever.

The rest of the world needs a modernized Saudi Arabia. But for that to happen, Saudi Arabia needs the rest of the world.

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