PRESIDENT Rodrigo Duterte’s order to “occupy” the country’s controlled islands in the South China Sea will do nothing to strengthen the credibility of his foreign policy, a South China Sea expert said Friday.
Calling the President’s latest pronouncements as “complete hyperbole,” Jay Batongbacal, a maritime law expert at the University of the Philippines who tracks the South China Sea dispute, said Duterte “badly needs to read a primer on the [West Philippine Sea]” dispute.
“Ordering the AFP to occupy, build on, and raise the flag over islands and reefs that have already been occupied, built on, and flying the flag for decades initially makes no sense; it can make sense if applied to an island or reef that is currently unoccupied,” Batongbacal said.
“From whatever angle you look at it, this kind of statement does nothing for President Rodrigo Duterte’s credibility in foreign policy,” he added.
He also said that if Duterte meant was to simply order the repair of the runway on Pag-asa and the building of new facilities on currently occupied islands, “then that’s exactly what should have been said. No more, no less.”
“The repair of the runway at Pag-asa and the construction of new facilities to augment old ones in the Philippine-held positions in the Kalayaan Island Group are indeed sorely needed and it is well-past the time they should have been done, but they do not amount to any new occupation.”
Batongbacal warned that Duterte’s statements of “playing to the galleries” could actually lead to a major crisis, especially if other claimant countries take him seriously and decide to take forceful pre-emptive action.
“[Duterte’s] order might also be understood as an order to occupy islands currently held and controlled by other claimant countries. But then, that would mean possibly starting an armed conflict with the states in control of such militarily occupied and controlled features,” he said.
“Any new occupation or inhabitation of any one of the currently unoccupied reefs and shoals by the Philippines will comprise a breach of its commitment in the 2002 Declaration of Conduct of the Parties to the [South China Sea] to not engage in actions that tend to complicate and escalate the dispute, and to refrain from any new inhabitation of previously uninhabited features,” he added.
On Thursday, Duterte told the military to “put structures and the Philippine flag” on its islands and reefs, and to repair the runway on Pag-asa or Thitu Island, the second-largest of the Spratly island chain with an area of about 91 acres.
“What’s ours now, at least let’s get them and make a strong point there that it is ours,” he said, shortly after receiving a security briefing at Puerto Princesa City in Palawan.
Duterte also told the military to make its presence there strong to ensure the safety of Filipino fishermen and residents of Pag-asa Island.
The country has already occupied or built structures, and raised the flag over the islands of Pag-asa, Lawak, Patag, Likas, Parola, Panata, and Kota. The military has also occupied, controlled, and raised the flag over Rizal Reef and Ayungin Shoal. Some of these were permanently occupied as early as 1970 (Lawak Island); the latest (Ayungin Shoal) in 1995.
All other islands of the Spratly Islands (from which the Kalayaan Islands have been segregated by the Philippines) have been occupied by Taiwan since 1956 (Itu Aba) and Vietnam since the 1970s (including Spratly Island itself).
Shortly after Duterte’s pronouncements, a Washington-based think tank reported that a Chinese fighter plane was spotted in the area.
The Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative (AMTI), which is part of Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the J-11 fighter was visible in a satellite image taken on March 29 of Woody Island in the Paracel island chain.
“This isn’t a first, but it’s the first time in a year,” AMTI director Greg Poling said of the jet sighting.
Referring to the single fighter plane visible in the image, he said: “There are likely more in the hangars nearby.”
Poling said it was unclear how long the plane had been there, but added that similar deployments on artificial islands China has built further south in the South China Sea’s Spratly archipelago could be expected now that military facilities had been completed there.
Batongbacal said the President’s actions may have been a calculated move to tone down criticisms against him over his perceived soft-stance on China, or the pending impeachment complaint on grounds of inaction to the ongoing maritime row.
He also noted that the President’s sudden and radical action to occupy islands in the South China Sea is “opposite to his previous refrain of not taking provocative action and cultivating good relations with China.”
“This is not a good way to blunt Magdalo’s supplemental impeachment complaint alleging a weak and defeatist foreign policy vis-a-vis China, or respond to public opinion and frustrations about China and the WPS, or address the reported drop in trust ratings,” he said.
The Palace however, said Duterte’s planned trip to Pag-asa Island on Independence Day illustrates his administration’s push for an independent foreign policy.
“The President recently announced plans to improve, and implement the Pag-asa Development Plan which includes nine areas. This is part of his mandate to serve the best interests of the nation,” Presidential Spokesman Ernesto Abella said in a statement sent to reporters.
“It will be significant that it will be the first time a President visits and commemorates Independence Day in [the] municipality. It will also be symbolic of our independent foreign policy.”
“The government maintains its commitment for the development of these islands for the benefit of our citizens there,” he added.
The military said there is no problem in carrying out the President’s order since the international arbitration ruling of the Permanent Court of Hague has affirmed the claims of the Philippines.
“That’s an order from the President and I intend to carry that out. That territory is ours according to the arbitration ruling so we don’t see any problem,” AFP Chief of Staff Eduardo Año told ABS-CBN.
Also on Friday, Senator Gregorio Honasan II said that he supports Duterte’s pitch to raise the Philippine flag on Pag-asa Island on Independence Day to assert the country’s sovereign rights in the disputed area.
Senator Panfilo Lacson said asserting sovereignty and territoriality can take many forms and courses of action.
“Whatever goodwill and good relations the President has established with China, at the end of the day, our national interest should take the front seat,” said Lacson in a text message.
“All of us who has genuine love for our country must therefore support the President on the course of action that he has chosen to take,” he added.
Senate Majority Leader Vicente Sotto III said he supports the decision of Duterte to assert the country’s right over the disputed territory.
“I know he is planning that—China will be informed and I know they will not object,” he added. With Macon Ramos-Araneta and PNA