There are two disturbing developments on the economic front. One, the peso has depreciated against the US dollar, by 10 percent, since 2016, from P45 per dollar to P52 today—a 10-year low. This makes the peso the worst-performing currency in Asia. This is ironic, considering that the Philippines is supposedly the best-performing economy in Asia, next to or outside of China, with annual growth that should average 7 percent per year. Imagine that—the region’s greatest economy has the region’s worst-performing currency.
The level of foreign reserves—which serves as a checking account against which imports and other foreign exchange outflows are charged, has remained at the $80-billion level. The peso is supposed to hit P51 by the end of 2018 yet, per predictions of analysts. Yet, as early as March 22, the peso hit its 10-year low of P52.439 to the dollar. Since Jan. 7, the peso has lost 4.5 percent of its value against the US greenback. The second development is that the inflation rate has leaped to its highest level in 40 months.
Why? Because of high food prices. Why are food prices high? Two reasons: One, the high taxes on bell-weather products like diesel, and two, because the state-owned National Food Authority has run out, deliberately, for the first time since its invention in the 1970s, of rice. A government rice agency running out of rice is like the central bank running out of cash. As a result, there is now a virtual run on rice, its prices gone berserk. Rice, by the way, is 15 points out of the 100 points of the Consumer Price Index. And food, in general, is 55 points of the poor man’s CPI.
Because rice prices are up, diesel price is up, and because the dollar has become more expensive when buying imports, prices of nearly every other commodity or service are up. Your cellphone bill is up, your telephone bill is up, your water bill is up, your electricity bill is up, and your transport fares are up. Utilities, as you know by now, enjoy, by government tolerance, an automatic CERA—currency exchange rate adjustment. Your water bills, in fact, has one other rider—a charge for sewerage service, meaning the water company collects something like P50 a month from you for service that is basically not rendered, which is cleaning out your underground cesspool. Usually, when your waste tank is full, you call Malabanan. Now, that service is hardly rendered by Manila Water and Maynilad Water, despite a fee that is collected in advance. When they don’t render the service, you have what you call pure profit and you wallow in sh*t.
Amazingly, President Duterte’s approval ratings remain very high. In the past, if the incumbent administration ran out of rice, it would lose the next election. Because voters treat it like sh*t. Instead, Dearest Digong’s satisfaction rating has even gone up, from 67 percent of people surveyed in September 2017 to 70 percent in March this year, per the Social Weather Stations. His satisfaction rating is higher in Metro Manila—the center of media and critics—at 72 percent in March (two percentage point above the national average), and four percentage points above September 2017’s 68 percent.
If you assume that there are 105 million Filipinos and assume that each Filipino, including babies who cannot talk, can express an opinion, a 67 percent satisfaction rating means 70.35 million Filipinos (70 percent of 105) like their President and are happy with his performance. For every Filipino who doesn’t like Digong, there are two Filipinos who like him. That’s an overwhelming advantage of two-to-one. In six months, from September to March, the number of Duterte diehards increased by three million.
You cannot blame the D30 believers. The guy has just created a new middle class—our soldiers (140,000), our policemen (194,000), and our teachers (244,000). This class of wage earners now makes an average of P40,000 a month ($769 a current peso-dollar rate) or P520,000 a year (13 months times P40,000). These people become millionaires every other year. They shame journalists who probably make only half that despite their command of language and knowledge. A cabinet secretary makes P2.378 million a year, whether or not he has command of language or knowledge.
Who is the president who can do that? Duterte, of course. Your average police or army general makes P1.3 million a year, because the monthly pay of generals is now P100,000. Remember the police and the army guard polling precincts on election day. Teachers count the votes at the end of election day.
Additionally, there is indefinite martial law on the entire Mindanao archipelago. Without anybody looking, Duterte has become the Philippines’ most powerful president ever.
So now, there is talk that the next president of the Philippines, after our Dearest Digong, is a woman, Sara Duterte Carpio. This early, she is organizing her own political party and this early, many are joining her bandwagon. So this early, the 2022 presidential election looks like a three-way fight —among global boxing champion Senator Manny Pacquiao, returning senatorial topnotcher Grace Poe, and Sara, of course. Prepare your depreciated peso, for bets.