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Friday, March 29, 2024

RevGov

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Revolutionary government is suddenly on everyone’s lips these days. 

Next week on Bonifacio Day, the revolutionists are planning dozens of same-day rallies throughout the country and in major OFW host cities abroad. If you’re in Manila and of like mind, the place to be is Mendiola at 3 p.m. on Thursday, Nov.  30, prior to marching on the Palace to try and conscript a reluctant President.

Even detained Senator Leila de Lima has weighed in on the issue, warning that a revolutionary government would by its nature suspend or bypass the Constitution, thereby freeing the Armed Forces from their constitutional loyalty to the Presidency. Thus, what may in fact happen is Duterte ending up being overthrown.

So is the senator against “RevGov” because it’s extra-constitutional, or for it because Duterte gets to be kicked out? It’s hard to tell from the other side of her prison bars.

The other day, the President clarified that his earlier threats to declare RevGov are not unconditional. In fact, they’re predicated on the outbreak of widespread violence in the streets that may require extraordinary powers to bring under control.

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That seems eminently reasonable. What’s the use of a wimpy president, after all, when your very lives and property are being put on the line? Think “Marawi” if you want a graphic picture.

So why did the media drop any reference to the predicate and focus only on the President’s threat? Clearly, in order to paint him as a brute—which suits the yellow narrative—as well as generate controversial headlines—which boosts sales and fattens the profits of media owners.

* * *

If  the need for RevGov is to be properly judged, we first have to evaluate the likelihood of the predicate. Specifically, how real is the risk of an organized campaign of violence to unseat Duterte and forcibly transfer political power to a group or groups waiting in the shadows?

Let’s look at some recent developments for clues:

ISIS terror—Three Abu Sayyaf members had been arrested in Quezon City a few days before the Asean summit. Now the PNP believes that the three were actually planning an attack on the summit, based on photos and videos captured. It seems that there is now an “urban terrorist group” being organized by the ASG.

More recently, the AFP spotted several Caucasian-looking foreigners among a gang of BFF fighters they were pursuing in North Cotabato. They were tipped off by the MILF, which obviously wants to earn the government’s trust in a future Bangsamoro state by helping the AFP against its rival rebel groups. 

Speaking of the MILF, their first vice chairman Ghazali Jaafar recently avowed that they would support Duterte forever—yesterday, today and tomorrow—ostensibly because the President has Moro blood. Do they in fact sense something afoot among more radical groups in Mindanao that they want to distance themselves from?

NPA terror—Duterte has now called the NPA a bunch of criminals and promised to issue a proclamation declaring them to be a terror organization. He no longer wants to resume peace talks with them, and is even considering a crackdown on their comrades in Bayan Muna and other NDF front groups.

Duterte is simply responding to the recent spate of violence incited by the CPP senior leadership after peace talks broke down. And by calling out the NPA as terrorists, he’s just following the lead of noteworthy organizations like the US State department—which put that label on them in 2002—and the European Union Council, which followed suit in 2005. 

But why does he seem so vehement now? After bending over backward to accommodate the communists—even appointing some of them to his Cabinet right after he took office—is Duterte also smelling something afoot among that bunch?

* * *

What’s the nightmare scenario we could be facing? By way of pure speculation—since nobody named would own up to it anyway—that scenario would see a tie-up among BIFF and ASG, ISIS, and the CPP-NPA; the spread of violent activity to Metro Manila and other cities; bankrolled at home by drug lords and narco-politicians, and abroad by the same “deep state” now working to depose Donald Trump in a less dramatic manner. 

Even without RevGov, though, the President is not without options. To deal with such a threat, the following counter-measures are available to him:

Extend martial law in Mindanao after the year-end. Of course, this ought to be done by the book, by first seeking Congress’ approval.

Hire more soldiers (eight new AFP battalions now planned) and update their training (new focus on urban warfare with help from Australia and Singapore).

Expand and upgrade the PNP Special Action Force for high-intensity urban fighting.

Call up the reserves and put them on higher alert and training, so that they can immediately take over non-combat duties from the professional soldiers as needed.

Acquire more military and other equipment from allies like the US, China, Russia, Japan, and Asean neighbors. As I mentioned last time, that may well include our first-ever submarine (from the Russians).

Actively begin to engage the decades-old propaganda  of the NDF, who are now trying to sell us a bill of goods in their so-called Comprehensive Agreement for Socio Economic Reforms.

Mobilize local community leaders in high-risk areas, from regional or provincial peace and order councils at the top, all the way down to volunteer barangay militias at the bottom.

Pass the BBL as soon as possible, and lock in the MILF’s support for government by properly resourcing their economic plans. 

* * *

I want to close this piece by bidding goodbye to my colleague in the Manila Standard, senior reporter Christine “TinTin” Herrera, who succumbed to her second heart attack and stroke while on vacation in Bangkok.

I learned only from her Facebook condolences that TinTin was active in the League of Filipino Students in her campus days. It really doesn’t surprise me that her feistiness was honed in the parliament of the streets. It’s what made her, and others from the same background, genuine.

Her husband Lito “Dong” Herrera was a fraternity brother of mine too. Brod, my condolences and prayers go out to you and your family. 

Readers can write me at gbolivar1952@yahoo.com.

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