The Philippine economy likely expanded 6.9 percent in the first quarter, faster than the 6.8-percent expansion a year ago, on robust domestic demand and consumption, Moody’s Analytics, a division of Moody’s Corp., said over the weekend.
“We expect the Philippine economy to have expanded 6.9 percent year-on-year in the first quarter, improving on the 6.6-percent rise in the prior [fourth] quarter,” Moody’s said in a report.
“Domestic demand continues to be the main driver, with private investment and consumption increasing rapidly. Positive demographic factors and rising incomes are supporting consumption,” it said.
Moody’s said net exports should also be positive, as merchandise exports recovered in recent months and service exports continued to perform well.
The government is set to release the first-quarter GDP data on Thursday.
The economy grew 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2016, bringing the full-year average to 6.9 percent, near the upper bound of the Duterte administration’s target range of 6 percent to 7 percent. The 2016 growth was also faster than the 5.9-percent expansion in 2015.
The government set a GDP growth target of 6.5 percent to 7.5 percent in 2017, on expected strong domestic demand, higher fiscal expenditures and investments.
The Asian Development Bank kept its growth estimate for the Philippines this year at 6.4 percent and raised the 2018 growth forecast to 6.6 percent as the government ramps up public infrastructure investments.
The International Monetary Fund said the Philippine economy had the potential to expand 6.8 percent this year on the back of the recovery in exports and faster fiscal spending.
The multi-lateral lender’s 2017 forecast was slightly faster than its previous assumption of 6.7 percent.