For many people, the gathering of Association of Southeast Asian Nations members now being held in Manila means only a couple of things: stay away from Makati traffic, color coding is suspended, and hooray for another long weekend with Labor Day coming up right behind.
The novelty is wearing off from this annual event. But it would be too bad if we missed certain things about this year’s summit, hosted by the Philippines as chairman, that promise to make it more memorable than usual.
This year may well be remembered as the start of the regionalization of the “Duterte point of view,” as well as the beginning of realignments to new realities being pushed by the two 800-pound gorillas in the room, China and the US.
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1. Go easy on China—The first draft of the “chairman’s statement” to be read at the end of the summit will not make Duterte squirm on the podium. According to various wire agencies, it neither mentions China directly nor refers to the arbitral decision in our favor. Instead, it simply expresses “serious concerns by some leaders over recent developments and escalation of activities in the area.”
It should be noted in this regard that three other Asean countries—Brunei, Malaysia, and Vietnam—plus Taiwan also have maritime claims contested by China. But none of them apparently have been as vociferous as the Philippines, which, according to a satirical match-up online, boasts a million keyboard warriors on the issue versus none in China.
This did not dissuade former Foreign Affairs Secretary Albert Del Rosario from pressing on with his old pugnacity. “The draft…is deeply disappointing,” he thundered, “and…would manifest an absence of the desired leadership.”
What’s unclear from him is how he proposes to change the minds of the nine other Asean members who, from the very start under PNoy, have been happy to let the Philippines lead the charge, all by its lonesome. Perhaps those million keyboard warriors of ours should be redeployed to stir up support in the other Asean capital cities.
An unnamed former government official involved in foreign policy—thought by some to be a dead ringer for del Rosario—even went so far as to say that “we are now acting like China’s lackey.” I imagine this was intended to be an insult, compared to being charged with, say, being an American lackey.
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2. To each his own on drugs—Heading into the summit, international human rights watchdog Amnesty International all of a sudden took a hitherto unknown interest in regional integration and called on the Asean members to gang up on Duterte, the summit’s chairman and their host.
I don’t expect these crusaders to understand simple hospitality, nor do I begrudge my respect for the thankless work they do. But I cannot for the life of me fathom a very simple problem: why AI keeps on using some humongous number in the thousands—now up to 9,000—as its total estimate for alleged victims of EJK’s in our anti-drug war.
This number is simply not true, as the PNP itself keeps repeating to its exasperation. The actual number does not exceed 2,000. But, hey, nine thou sounds better than two, so if you’re going for the big lie, why not go all the way?
AI’s recidivist mendacity on something as simple as a number can only call into question the rest of their evidence, the quality of their reasoning, and the innocence of their intentions behind this smear campaign.
Unfortunately for AI, none of the Asean members have indicated an interest even just to be briefed by the Philippines on the EJK issue. According to DFA, this lack of interest simply echoes the alliance’s formal position from last year that “reaffirmed the sovereign right and responsibility of each country to decide on the best approach to address its drug problem, taking into consideration the context and norms of its society.”
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3. Let’s trade!—Thus, instead of meddling in each other’s affairs, the Asean countries have decided to deal head-on with the problems posed by the newly protectionist stance of the United States under its new President.
The original Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP) project predictably tanked after Trump pulled the US out of the deal. In its place, and with China’s reported backing, Asean members now intend to push through instead with plans for a Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP).
This pact is expected to aggressively tear down trade barriers among the Asean countries and the region’s heavyweights: China, Japan, South Korea, India, and Australia/New Zealand. If it also prompts liberalization of investment, credit, and labor flows across these borders, a new global powerhouse may be looming on the horizon.
This is what Asean was always intended to be: a partnership of equals, not a pack of meddlesome busybodies. If the partnership comes out of its Manila meetings this year even stronger, that would be worth the inconvenience of added traffic—though not nearly as good, of course, as the extra week-end days.
Readers can write me at gbolivar1952@yahoo.com.