This week, US President Donald Trump will be meeting Chinese President Xi Jinping for the very first time, in Florida.
The agenda promises to be a daunting one: US trade deficits and job losses that Trump blames on the Chinese; potential flashpoints in North Korea and Taiwan; freedom of navigation in the seas surrounding the Chinese mainland.
Such meetings also try to build personal rapport between the protagonists. But I don’t expect too much in that area between a volatile, instinctual dealmaker like Trump—who so far hasn’t been able to rein in even his own Congressional partymates—and a lifelong veteran of internecine Communist Party intrigues like Xi, and every other Chinese head of state before him.
On trade, the US-China Business Council likes to point out that the bilateral trade and investment relationship with China created 2.6 million American jobs in 2015 and saved every American family $850 a year from cheaper imports.
Even if protectionist Trump won’t acknowledge it, this is a textbook benefit from open trade that ought to be appreciated by people here who criticize Duterte for allegedly selling out national honor for pottage. Building a similar relationship with China promises to put more food on the table and more money in our pockets, not more of our young people in harm’s way in a shooting war.
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Having said that, though, we still ought to push back as often and as hard as we can on the issues that divide us from other countries, whether it be China, the US, the EU or anybody else.
In our latest sortie, the President has asked DFA to look into renaming Benham Rise as the Philippine Rise, to emphasize our “sovereign rights” (NOT sovereignty) over that stretch of continental shelf to the east.
As a matter of fact, the Chinese have been scrupulously observing the navigational conventions applicable in that area. And it’s pretty clear from any map that they’d first have to claim the entire island of Luzon before getting to the Benham Rise waters.
But, it will help a lot to name what’s ours, ours. For all we know, China’s mapmakers today may be descendants of the ancient mapmakers who produced that “nine-dash line” out of the blue centuries ago. Sometimes genetics can be funny that way.
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We’re now headed into a period of vast uncertainty in our foreign relations, as we continue to rebalance in unknown directions. We’re surrounded by a profoundly wily China, a certifiable lunatic in North Korea, an American ally in slow retreat, an amateurishly meddlesome Europe, and a still-unreadable Russia.
At the same time, back home, we’re led by a President who, for all his patent sincerity and instinctive grasp of grand strategy, likes to leave the details to his Cabinet.
He’s humble enough to realize his own limitations (some of them the result of his uncensorable spontaneity) and, beyond them, trust the experience of others. He’s secure enough about himself to let himself, not just be spun, but even contradicted by the people who report to him.
It’s a working situation that places even greater demands as usual on the perspicacity of his Cabinet members—including, perhaps foremost among them, the Secretary of Foreign Affairs, who has to do a lot of spinning these days in addition to his already lengthy job description.
Right now that position is filled in an acting capacity by Ambassador Ricky Manalo. It’s my considered opinion that this career diplomat is also the best man to fill that seat in a permanent capacity.
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For full disclosure, Amba Ricky was a classmate of mine in the MA Economics class that entered UP in 1975—an illustrious bunch that also produced public finance guru Dr. Chat Manasan at PIDS and the late Health Secretary Mario Taguiwalo.
Ricky was a good-looking young guy, perpetually in denims, who with his generous mustache looked like a Mexican bandido. His parents were both career ambassadors, so diplomacy was something he must have eaten and breathed every day while growing up.
I haven’t seen him since graduation, so I had to go online to find out that his career has spanned ambassadorial postings in Europe and the United Nations, as well as being undersecretary for policy twice when he was off-post.
It’s a background that should be very useful in managing Western antagonism to the unorthodoxies of our President, as well as steering foreign policy through the uncharted waters that lie ahead.
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I used to think the Executive Secretary was the most senior Cabinet member, until I was corrected by the estimable Senator Kit Tatad. It’s actually the Foreign Affairs Secretary who’s primus inter pares by tradition, because it is he after all who represents the President and the country to the rest of the world.
Thus it’s not a position to be taken lightly as spoils of political patronage. Anyway there are two dozen other Cabinet seats available to be handed out to friends, patrons, and such. Even less should the top DFA post be left to seat-warmers in a game of musical chairs.
Here’s hoping then that the President, who’s never let ego get in the way of what’s best for the country, will again do the right thing here and leave the professional in charge.
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